UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Charles Oliveira (25-11) taking on Max Holloway (23-9). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Oliveira carries a modest Elo edge (1974 to 1901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holloway throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Holloway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira. The model gives Holloway a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (8-1) taking on Reinier de Ridder (4-2). Ridder is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Borralho is rated at 1755 — 202 points above Ridder's 1554. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Borralho is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ridder looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ridder the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borralho throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Borralho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder. The model gives Borralho a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raul Rosas Jr. (6-1) taking on Rob Font (12-9). Font will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jr. carries a modest Elo edge (1437 to 1406), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Jr. rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jr. looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jr. the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Font throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Font has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raul Rosas Jr. over Rob Font. We're leaning Jr. here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (15-11) taking on Michael Johnson (16-16). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dober at 1301 versus Johnson at 1155. That 146-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Johnson has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Dober's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Drew Dober over Michael Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dober at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market implies 64% for Dober, but our model sees only 50%. That 14-point gap favoring Johnson is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (10-3) taking on Brunno Ferreira (6-3). Rodrigues is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodrigues is rated at 1649 — 296 points above Ferreira's 1352. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ferreira has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Rodrigues is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ferreira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ferreira the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira. We're leaning Rodrigues here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Rodrigues at 59% implied while our model sees 65% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (10-7) taking on Xiao Long (1-3). Long will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Garbrandt is rated at 1313 — 332 points above Long's 981. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Long throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Long is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Garbrandt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Xiao Long. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garbrandt at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Donte Johnson (2-0) taking on Cody Brundage (5-8). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Brundage.

Johnson is rated at 1177 — 303 points above Brundage's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brundage throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Donte Johnson over Cody Brundage. The model is firm on this one: Johnson at 90%. Notably, the betting market has Johnson at 86% implied while our model sees 90% — a 4-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Alberto Montes (1-0) taking on Ricky Turcios (2-4). Turcios is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Montes is rated at 1079 — 333 points above Turcios's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turcios throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Turcios is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Montes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alberto Montes over Ricky Turcios. The model gives Montes a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (2-1) taking on Cody Durden (6-8-1). Tumendemberel will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tumendemberel is rated at 1170 — 256 points above Durden's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tumendemberel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. We're leaning Tumendemberel here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (6-4) taking on Jesus Aguilar (4-3). Sumudaerji is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sumudaerji at 1173 versus Aguilar at 1024. That 149-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Sumudaerji rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Sumudaerji is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aguilar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Aguilar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Jesus Aguilar. The model gives Sumudaerji a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Diyar Nurgozhay (1-2) taking on Rafael Tobias (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nurgozhay at 899 versus Tobias at 780. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurgozhay throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurgozhay is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Tobias has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Tobias over Diyar Nurgozhay. We're leaning Tobias here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rodolfo Bellato (2-1-1) taking on Luke Fernandez (0-1).

Bellato is rated at 1222 — 377 points above Fernandez's 845. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bellato throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bellato is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Fernandez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Fernandez over Rodolfo Bellato. We're leaning Fernandez here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.