UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Max Holloway (22-8) taking on Charles Oliveira (24-11). Oliveira will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Holloway carries a modest Elo edge (1897 to 1846), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Holloway is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oliveira looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Oliveira the stylistic edge.

The submission threat is elevated here at 47%, with the model also seeing 24% KO/TKO and 29% decision probability.

The Pick: Charles Oliveira over Max Holloway. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Oliveira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Caio Borralho (7-1) taking on Reinier de Ridder (4-1). Ridder is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Borralho at 1570 versus Ridder at 1433. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borralho throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ridder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Borralho has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 35% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 18% submission and 48% decision.

The Pick: Caio Borralho over Reinier de Ridder. The model gives Borralho a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rob Font (12-8) taking on Raul Rosas Jr. (4-1). Font will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Font at 1361 versus Jr. at 1251. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jr. has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Font is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Jr. looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jr. the stylistic edge.

The submission threat is elevated here at 42%, with the model also seeing 29% KO/TKO and 29% decision probability.

The Pick: Rob Font over Raul Rosas Jr.. The model gives Font a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Drew Dober (14-11) taking on Michael Johnson (15-15). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1245 — 162 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Dober's all-rounder game against Johnson's striker approach. Dober is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

The submission threat is elevated here at 36%, with the model also seeing 30% KO/TKO and 34% decision probability.

The Pick: Michael Johnson over Drew Dober. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (9-3) taking on Brunno Ferreira (6-2). Rodrigues is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 171 points above Ferreira's 1344. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ferreira has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Rodrigues's striker game against Ferreira's submission artist approach. Rodrigues brings a versatile approach, while Ferreira is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Ferreira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 52% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 14% submission and 34% decision.

The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira. The model gives Rodrigues a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (9-6) taking on Xiao Long (1-2). Long will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Garbrandt at 1155 versus Long at 1006. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 37%, with the model also seeing 31% KO/TKO and 32% decision probability.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Xiao Long. The model gives Garbrandt a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Donte Johnson (1-0) taking on Dusko Todorovic (4-6). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Todorovic.

Johnson is rated at 1078 — 207 points above Todorovic's 871. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Todorovic throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The submission threat is elevated here at 34%, with the model also seeing 31% KO/TKO and 34% decision probability.

The Pick: Donte Johnson over Dusko Todorovic. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Ricky Turcios (2-2) taking on Alberto Montes (0-0). Turcios is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Montes is rated at 1000 — 171 points above Turcios's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The submission threat is elevated here at 43%, with the model also seeing 22% KO/TKO and 35% decision probability.

The Pick: Alberto Montes over Ricky Turcios. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Montes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Cody Durden (6-7-1) taking on Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (1-1). Tumendemberel will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Tumendemberel is rated at 1049 — 203 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Durden throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Tumendemberel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model projects 31% KO/TKO, 21% submission, and 48% decision for this bout.

The Pick: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel over Cody Durden. We're leaning Tumendemberel here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Sumudaerji (5-4) taking on Jesus Aguilar (4-2). Sumudaerji is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Aguilar carries a modest Elo edge (1087 to 1054), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Sumudaerji is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Aguilar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Aguilar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguilar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Aguilar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The submission threat is elevated here at 25%, with the model also seeing 26% KO/TKO and 49% decision probability.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Jesus Aguilar. The model gives Sumudaerji a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features JooSang Yoo (1-1) taking on Gaston Bolanos (2-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Yoo at 1014 versus Bolanos at 867. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yoo throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bolanos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Yoo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model projects 32% KO/TKO, 20% submission, and 48% decision for this bout.

The Pick: Gaston Bolanos over JooSang Yoo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bolanos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Luke Fernandez (0-0) taking on Rodolfo Bellato (1-1-1).

Bellato carries a modest Elo edge (1033 to 1000), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 38% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 40% submission and 23% decision.

The Pick: Luke Fernandez over Rodolfo Bellato. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fernandez at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.