UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Saturday, March 14, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Featherweight
Emmett 26%74% Vallejos
Method Prediction
KO 35%Sub 19%Dec 46%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -12(favors Vallejos)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Vallejos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Vallejos)
Women's Strawweight
Lemos 59%41% Robertson
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 44%Dec 33%
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Robertson)
Light Heavyweight
Cutelaba 50%50% Sy
Method Prediction
KO 35%Sub 45%Dec 20%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -54(favors Sy)
Featherweight
Rahiki 47%53% Hardwick
Method Prediction
KO 20%Sub 48%Dec 32%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +82(favors Rahiki)
Bantamweight
Lacerda 55%45% Sosa
Method Prediction
KO 27%Sub 41%Dec 32%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -99(favors Sosa)
Women's Bantamweight
Mesquita 66%34% Rendon
Method Prediction
KO 19%Sub 26%Dec 55%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +32(favors Mesquita)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Mesquita)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Mesquita)
Women's Strawweight
Rodriguez 41%59% Hughes
Method Prediction
KO 18%Sub 40%Dec 42%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -29(favors Hughes)
Flyweight
Johnson 44%56% Silva
Method Prediction
KO 24%Sub 15%Dec 61%
LEAN
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -106(favors Silva)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Silva)
Bantamweight
Smith 54%46% You
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 46%Dec 31%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -64(favors You)
Lightweight
Oki 60%40% Sousa
Method Prediction
KO 27%Sub 42%Dec 31%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -79(favors Sousa)
Heavyweight
Petrino 53%47% Asplund
Method Prediction
KO 42%Sub 30%Dec 28%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +128(favors Petrino)
→Striking volume advantage: -16.8(favors Asplund)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Petrino)
Featherweight
Fili 54%46% Delgado
Method Prediction
KO 25%Sub 37%Dec 38%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -54(favors Delgado)