UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-6) taking on Kevin Vallejos (3-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Emmett at 1356, Vallejos at 1367. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Vallejos has won 3 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vallejos throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Vallejos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Vallejos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 35% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 19% submission and 46% decision.

The Pick: Kevin Vallejos over Josh Emmett. We're leaning Vallejos here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-5) taking on Gillian Robertson (12-6).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lemos at 1335, Robertson at 1352. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Robertson has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Lemos is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Robertson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Robertson the stylistic edge.

The submission threat is elevated here at 44%, with the model also seeing 23% KO/TKO and 33% decision probability.

The Pick: Amanda Lemos over Gillian Robertson. The model gives Lemos a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Oumar Sy (3-1). Sy is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Sy carries a modest Elo edge (1201 to 1147), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 35% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 45% submission and 19% decision.

The Pick: Oumar Sy over Ion Cutelaba. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sy at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Marwan Rahiki (0-0) taking on Harry Hardwick (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Rahiki at 1000 versus Hardwick at 918. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 48%, with the model also seeing 20% KO/TKO and 32% decision probability.

The Pick: Harry Hardwick over Marwan Rahiki. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hardwick at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Luan Lacerda (1-2) taking on Hecher Sosa (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sosa at 1000 versus Lacerda at 901. That 99-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 41%, with the model also seeing 27% KO/TKO and 31% decision probability.

The Pick: Luan Lacerda over Hecher Sosa. The model gives Lacerda a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Bia Mesquita (1-0) taking on Montse Rendon (2-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Rendon.

Mesquita carries a modest Elo edge (1083 to 1051), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mesquita throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mesquita is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Mesquita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The submission threat is elevated here at 26%, with the model also seeing 19% KO/TKO and 55% decision probability.

The Pick: Bia Mesquita over Montse Rendon. We're leaning Mesquita here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Piera Rodriguez (3-2) taking on Sam Hughes (6-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rodriguez at 1203, Hughes at 1232. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Hughes has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Rodriguez's striker game against Hughes's all-rounder approach. Rodriguez brings a versatile approach, while Hughes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

The submission threat is elevated here at 40%, with the model also seeing 18% KO/TKO and 41% decision probability.

The Pick: Sam Hughes over Piera Rodriguez. The model gives Hughes a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-6) taking on Bruno Silva (5-4). Johnson is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Silva at 1203 versus Johnson at 1097. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Johnson's striker game against Silva's all-rounder approach. Johnson brings a versatile approach, while Silva is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model gives this a 60% chance of going to the judges' scorecards, with a 39% probability of a stoppage (24% KO/TKO, 15% submission).

The Pick: Bruno Silva over Charles Johnson. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Elijah Smith (1-0) taking on SuYoung You (3-0). Smith is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

You carries a modest Elo edge (1207 to 1143), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. You has won 3 straight.

The submission threat is elevated here at 46%, with the model also seeing 23% KO/TKO and 31% decision probability.

The Pick: Elijah Smith over SuYoung You. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Smith at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Bolaji Oki (2-2) taking on Manoel Sousa (0-0). Oki will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sousa carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 921), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 42%, with the model also seeing 27% KO/TKO and 32% decision probability.

The Pick: Bolaji Oki over Manoel Sousa. The model gives Oki a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (6-2) taking on Steven Asplund (1-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Asplund.

There's a real Elo separation here: Petrino at 1195 versus Asplund at 1067. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Asplund throws significantly more leather — a 16.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Asplund has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 42% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 30% submission and 28% decision.

The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Steven Asplund. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petrino at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (12-11) taking on Jose Delgado (2-1).

Delgado carries a modest Elo edge (1194 to 1140), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 37%, with the model also seeing 25% KO/TKO and 38% decision probability.

The Pick: Andre Fili over Jose Delgado. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fili at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.