UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy
Saturday, March 21, 2026·London, England, United Kingdom
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Featherweight
Evloev 58%42% Murphy
Method Prediction
KO 20%Sub 43%Dec 37%
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +61(favors Evloev)
Featherweight
Riley 46%54% Jr.
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 23%Dec 55%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +84(favors Riley)
→Striking volume advantage: -6.3(favors Jr.)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Jr.)
Welterweight
Page 51%49% Patterson
Method Prediction
KO 24%Sub 47%Dec 29%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +76(favors Page)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.6(favors Patterson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Patterson)
Light Heavyweight
Baraniewski 51%49% Lane
Method Prediction
KO 40%Sub 40%Dec 20%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +319(favors Baraniewski)
Middleweight
Dolidze 56%44% Duncan
Method Prediction
KO 45%Sub 27%Dec 28%
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +122(favors Dolidze)
Featherweight
Campbell 51%49% Silva
Method Prediction
KO 23%Sub 46%Dec 31%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -51(favors Silva)
Lightweight
Jones 60%40% Sola
Method Prediction
KO 30%Sub 21%Dec 49%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +59(favors Jones)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Jones)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Jones)
Featherweight
Wood 54%46% Keita
Method Prediction
KO 27%Sub 35%Dec 38%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +389(favors Wood)
Heavyweight
Sutherland 28%72% Pericic
Method Prediction
KO 60%Sub 18%Dec 22%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -165(favors Pericic)
→Striking volume advantage: -13.0(favors Pericic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Pericic)
Middleweight
Kondratavicius 55%45% Trocoli
Method Prediction
KO 34%Sub 41%Dec 25%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +196(favors Kondratavicius)
Lightweight
Rock 42%58% Al-Selwady
Method Prediction
KO 27%Sub 27%Dec 46%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +100(favors Rock)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Al-Selwady)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.2(favors Al-Selwady)
Women's Strawweight
Dyer 50%50% Oliveira
Method Prediction
KO 18%Sub 47%Dec 35%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +152(favors Dyer)
Women's Bantamweight
Mullins 52%48% Carolina
Method Prediction
KO 22%Sub 38%Dec 40%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -30(favors Carolina)
Heavyweight
Pinto 62%38% Franco
Method Prediction
KO 48%Sub 34%Dec 18%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +264(favors Pinto)