UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Movsar Evloev (10-0) taking on Lerone Murphy (9-1-1).

Evloev is rated at 1891 — 207 points above Murphy's 1684. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Evloev rides a 9-fight win streak into this one, while Murphy has won 9 straight.

The style clash matters here: Evloev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Murphy is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Evloev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Murphy throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Evloev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Murphy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Movsar Evloev over Lerone Murphy. We're leaning Evloev here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Luke Riley (2-0) taking on Michael Aswell Jr. (1-2).

Riley is rated at 1287 — 273 points above Jr.'s 1014. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jr. throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jr. is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jr. has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Riley over Michael Aswell Jr.. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Riley at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Page (4-1) taking on Sam Patterson (4-2).

Page is rated at 1682 — 265 points above Patterson's 1417. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patterson has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patterson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Patterson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Page over Sam Patterson. The model gives Page a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way. The market implies 64% for Page, but our model sees only 57%. That 7-point gap favoring Patterson is worth watching.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Iwo Baraniewski (2-0) taking on Austen Lane (1-5). Lane is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Baraniewski is rated at 1172 — 435 points above Lane's 737. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Baraniewski throws significantly more leather — a 12.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Baraniewski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Iwo Baraniewski over Austen Lane. The model is firm on this one: Baraniewski at 76%. The market implies 84% for Baraniewski, but our model sees only 76%. That 8-point gap favoring Lane is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (7-2) taking on Roman Dolidze (9-5). Duncan will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Duncan carries a modest Elo edge (1617 to 1555), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Roman Dolidze. The model is firm on this one: Duncan at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Duncan at 77% implied while our model sees 88% — a 11-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Featherweight matchup features Danny Silva (3-1) taking on Kurtis Campbell (0-1).

Silva is rated at 1226 — 376 points above Campbell's 850. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Campbell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kurtis Campbell over Danny Silva. The model is firm on this one: Campbell at 78%. The market implies 30% for Silva, but our model sees only 22%. That 8-point gap favoring Campbell is worth watching.

The Lightweight matchup features Mason Jones (4-2) taking on Axel Sola (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Sola.

Jones is rated at 1303 — 244 points above Sola's 1058. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Jones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Sola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mason Jones over Axel Sola. The model gives Jones a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Featherweight matchup features Nathaniel Wood (11-3) taking on Losene Keita (0-1). Keita is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Wood is rated at 1435 — 451 points above Keita's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Wood rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Keita has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Losene Keita over Nathaniel Wood. The model gives Keita a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way. Notably, the betting market has Wood at 31% implied while our model sees 37% — a 7-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mario Pinto (3-0) taking on Felipe Franco (0-1). Pinto is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pinto is rated at 1437 — 459 points above Franco's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pinto throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinto is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Franco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mario Pinto over Felipe Franco. The model is firm on this one: Pinto at 80%. The market implies 87% for Pinto, but our model sees only 80%. That 7-point gap favoring Franco is worth watching.

The Middleweight matchup features Mantas Kondratavicius (1-0) taking on Antonio Trocoli (0-4). Trocoli is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Kondratavicius is rated at 1056 — 333 points above Trocoli's 723. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Trocoli throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Trocoli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kondratavicius has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mantas Kondratavicius over Antonio Trocoli. The model is firm on this one: Kondratavicius at 91%. Notably, the betting market has Kondratavicius at 87% implied while our model sees 91% — a 3-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brando Pericic (2-0) taking on Louie Sutherland (0-2). Pericic is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pericic is rated at 1276 — 388 points above Sutherland's 889. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pericic throws significantly more leather — a 13.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sutherland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pericic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brando Pericic over Louie Sutherland. We're leaning Pericic here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge. Notably, the betting market has Pericic at 68% implied while our model sees 74% — a 6-point disagreement that could signal value.

The Lightweight matchup features Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (1-1) taking on Shem Rock (0-2). Rock is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Al-Selwady is rated at 965 — 193 points above Rock's 772. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Al-Selwady throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Al-Selwady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Al-Selwady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shem Rock over Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Rock at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two. The market and our model are aligned — the line looks fair.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Shanelle Dyer (1-0) taking on Ravena Oliveira (0-3).

Dyer is rated at 1089 — 385 points above Oliveira's 704. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Dyer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shanelle Dyer over Ravena Oliveira. The model is firm on this one: Dyer at 88%. Notably, the betting market has Dyer at 80% implied while our model sees 88% — a 8-point disagreement that could signal value.