UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan
Saturday, April 4, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 7/13(54%)
Full Preview & Analysis →✓✓✓✗✓✓✗✓✗✓✗✗✗
Main Card
LightweightHIT
Renato Moicano won by Submission (R2)
Moicano 56%44% Duncan
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 36% (+19.1% edge)
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 55% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Moicano)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.1(favors Duncan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Duncan)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Virna Jandiroba won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Jandiroba 62%38% Ricci
Over/UnderOver 64%
Under 36%Over 64%
LEANMarket: 50% (+12.2% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Jandiroba)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Ricci)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Jandiroba)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev won by Submission (R1)
Yakhyaev 80%20% Ribeiro
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
STRONGMarket: 90% (-10.4% edge)
→Elo gap: +58(favors Yakhyaev)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.5(favors Yakhyaev)
→Takedown rate advantage: +26.3(favors Yakhyaev)
BantamweightMISS
Ethyn Ewing won by KO/TKO (R3)
Ewing 45%55% Estevam
Over/UnderOver 60%
Under 40%Over 60%
TOSS-UPMarket: 58% (-12.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -157(favors Estevam)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Ewing)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.3(favors Estevam)
FeatherweightHIT
Tommy McMillen won by KO/TKO (R1)
McMillen 92%8% Zecchini
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
STRONGMarket: 88% (+3.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +191(favors McMillen)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Zecchini)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Zecchini)
FeatherweightHIT
Jose Delano won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Delano 66%34% Ruchala
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
CONFIDENTMarket: 76% (-10.2% edge)
→Elo gap: +26(favors Delano)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Ruchala)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Ruchala)
Prelims
HeavyweightMISS
Thomas Petersen won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Petersen 44%56% Pat
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEANMarket: 50% (-5.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -117(favors Pat)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Pat)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Petersen)
FlyweightHIT
Alessandro Costa won by KO/TKO (R2)
Costa 83%17% Nicoll
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 76% (+6.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +209(favors Costa)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Nicoll)
LightweightMISS
Darrius Flowers won by KO/TKO (R2)
Flowers 23%77% Vannata
Over/UnderOver 53%
Under 47%Over 53%
STRONGMarket: 33% (-9.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -294(favors Vannata)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Vannata)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Flowers)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Alice Pereira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pereira 67%33% Cowan
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 54% (+13.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +52(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Cowan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Cowan)
MiddleweightMISS
Tresean Gore won by Submission (R3)
Gore 50%50% Bekoev
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -90(favors Bekoev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.8(favors Bekoev)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.7(favors Bekoev)
Women's FlyweightMISS
Dione Barbosa won by Decision - Majority (R3)
Barbosa 40%60% Gatto
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
LEANMarket: 56% (-15.9% edge)
→Elo gap: -87(favors Gatto)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Gatto)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Barbosa)
LightweightMISS
Kai Kamaka won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kamaka 45%55% Hope
Over/UnderOver 52%
Under 48%Over 52%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -287(favors Hope)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.0(favors Kamaka)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Kamaka)