UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Chris Duncan (6-1).

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 167 points above Duncan's 1375. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan has won 4 straight.

The style clash matters here: Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Duncan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

The submission threat is elevated here at 42%, with the model also seeing 26% KO/TKO and 32% decision probability.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Chris Duncan. The model gives Moicano a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jose Delano (0-0) taking on Robert Ruchala (0-1).

Delano carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 967), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 49%, with the model also seeing 20% KO/TKO and 31% decision probability.

The Pick: Robert Ruchala over Jose Delano. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ruchala at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Tofiq Musayev (0-0) taking on Samuel Sanches (0-0). Sanches will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sanches carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 946), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 44%, with the model also seeing 25% KO/TKO and 32% decision probability.

The Pick: Tofiq Musayev over Samuel Sanches. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Musayev at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (9-5) taking on JunYong Park (9-4). Shahbazyan is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Shahbazyan carries a modest Elo edge (1314 to 1235), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Shahbazyan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Shahbazyan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Park looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Park the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shahbazyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Park is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Shahbazyan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 41% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 20% submission and 39% decision.

The Pick: JunYong Park over Edmen Shahbazyan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Park at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Alessandro Costa (2-3) taking on Stewart Nicoll (0-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Costa at 934 versus Nicoll at 827. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicoll is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

Our method model projects 22% KO/TKO, 22% submission, and 56% decision for this bout.

The Pick: Alessandro Costa over Stewart Nicoll. We're leaning Costa here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-4) taking on Tabatha Ricci (6-3). Jandiroba is the bigger frame at 5'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jandiroba at 1457 versus Ricci at 1355. That 102-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ricci is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Jandiroba the stylistic edge.

The submission threat is elevated here at 46%, with the model also seeing 20% KO/TKO and 34% decision probability.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Tabatha Ricci. The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ethyn Ewing (1-0) taking on Rafael Estevam (2-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Estevam at 1237 versus Ewing at 1121. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 42%, with the model also seeing 27% KO/TKO and 31% decision probability.

The Pick: Ethyn Ewing over Rafael Estevam. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ewing at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Guilherme Pat (1-0) taking on Thomas Petersen (2-3). Pat is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Pat is rated at 1085 — 157 points above Petersen's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pat throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Pat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

There's a real chance this one doesn't go the distance — our model sees a 36% probability of a KO/TKO finish, with 23% submission and 41% decision.

The Pick: Guilherme Pat over Thomas Petersen. The model gives Pat a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Alice Pereira (0-1) taking on Hailey Cowan (0-1). Pereira will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pereira carries a modest Elo edge (928 to 870), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The submission threat is elevated here at 40%, with the model also seeing 25% KO/TKO and 35% decision probability.

The Pick: Alice Pereira over Hailey Cowan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pereira at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Dione Barbosa (2-2) taking on Melissa Gatto (2-2). Gatto will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gatto at 1148 versus Barbosa at 1025. That 123-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The submission threat is elevated here at 44%, with the model also seeing 22% KO/TKO and 34% decision probability.

The Pick: Dione Barbosa over Melissa Gatto. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barbosa at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.