UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates
Saturday, May 2, 2026·Perth, Western Australia, Australia
Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%Upcoming
Welterweight
5.3Strikes/Min3.7
53%Str Acc54%
63%Str Def48%
14%TD Acc100%
Maddalena 65%35% Prates
Over/UnderOver 58%
Under 42%Over 58%
CONFIDENT
Brawler vs Knockout Artist — Brawler wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -2(favors Prates)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.2(favors Maddalena)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Prates)
Lightweight
3.8Strikes/Min5.0
49%Str Acc59%
58%Str Def46%
38%TD Acc33%
Dariush 30%70% Salkilld
Over/UnderUnder 51%
Under 51%Over 49%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +4(favors Dariush)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Salkilld)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.1(favors Salkilld)
Heavyweight
3.7Strikes/Min7.4
48%Str Acc44%
44%Str Def43%
0%TD Acc11%
Tuivasa 58%42% Sharaf
Over/UnderUnder 61%
Under 61%Over 39%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +691(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.6(favors Sharaf)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Sharaf)
Light Heavyweight
3.4Strikes/Min3.9
52%Str Acc82%
52%Str Def26%
Tafa 59%41% Christian
Over/UnderUnder 53%
Under 53%Over 47%
LEAN
→Elo gap: -101(favors Christian)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Tafa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Christian)
Middleweight
5.8Strikes/Min3.7
45%Str Acc37%
54%Str Def60%
0%TD Acc100%
Rowston 70%30% Bryczek
Over/UnderUnder 57%
Under 57%Over 43%
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +160(favors Rowston)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.1(favors Rowston)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Bryczek)
Middleweight
4.5Strikes/Min3.0
58%Str Acc45%
55%Str Def53%
41%TD Acc30%
Malkoun 76%24% Meerschaert
Over/UnderUnder 52%
Under 52%Over 48%
STRONG
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +372(favors Malkoun)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Malkoun)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.8(favors Malkoun)
Flyweight
4.0Strikes/Min3.4
46%Str Acc45%
52%Str Def58%
28%TD Acc48%
Erceg 59%41% Elliott
Over/UnderOver 57%
Under 43%Over 57%
LEAN
Brawler vs Wrestler — Brawler wins 43% historically
→Elo gap: +15(favors Erceg)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Erceg)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Elliott)