UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-1-1) taking on Carlos Prates (6-1-1). Prates is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Maddalena at 1939, Prates at 1941. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Maddalena's brawler game against Prates's knockout artist approach. Maddalena pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage, while Prates is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Prates is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Carlos Prates. We're leaning Maddalena here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Beneil Dariush (17-7-2) taking on Quillan Salkilld (4-0-1). Salkilld is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dariush at 1557, Salkilld at 1553. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Salkilld has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salkilld throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Salkilld is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quillan Salkilld over Beneil Dariush. We're leaning Salkilld here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tai Tuivasa (8-9-1) taking on Sean Sharaf (0-2-1).

Tuivasa is rated at 1306 — 601 points above Sharaf's 705. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sharaf throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sharaf is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Sharaf has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tai Tuivasa over Sean Sharaf. The model gives Tuivasa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Junior Tafa (2-5-1) taking on Kevin Christian (0-1-1). Christian is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Christian carries a modest Elo edge (872 to 801), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Christian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Tafa over Kevin Christian. The model gives Tafa a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cam Rowston (2-0-1) taking on Robert Bryczek (1-1-1). Rowston is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rowston at 1302 versus Bryczek at 1197. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rowston throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Bryczek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bryczek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cam Rowston over Robert Bryczek. We're leaning Rowston here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacob Malkoun (5-3-1) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-13-1). Meerschaert is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Malkoun is rated at 1337 — 315 points above Meerschaert's 1022. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Malkoun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Malkoun over Gerald Meerschaert. The model is firm on this one: Malkoun at 76%.

The Flyweight matchup features Steve Erceg (4-3-1) taking on Tim Elliott (10-11-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Erceg at 1245, Elliott at 1233. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Erceg pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage, while Elliott looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 57% win rate against brawlers, giving Elliott the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erceg throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Elliott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Erceg over Tim Elliott. The model gives Erceg a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.