UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight matchup features Song Yadong (11-4-2) taking on Deiveson Figueiredo (14-6-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Yadong.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Yadong at 1631, Figueiredo at 1612. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Yadong pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage, while Figueiredo looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 57% win rate against brawlers, giving Figueiredo the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yadong throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueiredo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Song Yadong over Deiveson Figueiredo. We're leaning Yadong here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Sergei Pavlovich (8-3-1) taking on Tallison Teixeira (2-1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Teixeira.

Pavlovich is rated at 1770 — 326 points above Teixeira's 1444. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Teixeira throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Teixeira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tallison Teixeira over Sergei Pavlovich. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Teixeira at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Zhang Mingyang (3-1-1) taking on Alonzo Menifield (10-6-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Mingyang at 1286, Menifield at 1311. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mingyang throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Menifield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Menifield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zhang Mingyang over Alonzo Menifield. The model gives Mingyang a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (8-6-1) taking on Sumudaerji (6-4-1). Sumudaerji is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Perez at 1320 versus Sumudaerji at 1191. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Sumudaerji has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Brawler" archetype — aggressive fighters who push forward, throw volume, and look to overwhelm opponents in exchanges. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sumudaerji throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Sumudaerji has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sumudaerji over Alex Perez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sumudaerji at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.