UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Jack Della Maddalena (8-0). Maddalena will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 333 points above Maddalena's 1877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one, while Maddalena has won 8 straight.

The style clash matters here: Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Maddalena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Makhachev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Jack Della Maddalena.** We're leaning Makhachev here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Valentina Shevchenko (14-3-1) taking on Zhang Weili (10-2). Shevchenko will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Shevchenko at 1797 versus Weili at 1649. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Weili has won 5 straight.

The style clash matters here: Shevchenko is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Weili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Weili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Weili throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Shevchenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Zhang Weili over Valentina Shevchenko.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Weili at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Sean Brady (8-1). Morales is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Morales is rated at 1853 — 195 points above Brady's 1658. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Brady has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Morales's striker game against Brady's wrestler approach. Morales brings a versatile approach, while Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michael Morales over Sean Brady.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morales at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Prates (5-1) taking on Leon Edwards (14-4). Prates will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Prates is rated at 1806 — 210 points above Edwards's 1596. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Prates's striker game against Edwards's all-rounder approach. Prates brings a versatile approach, while Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prates throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Prates has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Leon Edwards over Carlos Prates.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Edwards at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Beneil Dariush (17-6-1).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 306 points above Dariush's 1437. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Denis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dariush is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Denis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Dariush has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Beneil Dariush over Benoit Saint Denis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dariush at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Bo Nickal (4-1) taking on Rodolfo Vieira (6-3). Nickal will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Nickal is rated at 1320 — 251 points above Vieira's 1069. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vieira throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nickal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Nickal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bo Nickal over Rodolfo Vieira.** We're leaning Nickal here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Gregory Rodrigues (8-3) taking on Roman Kopylov (6-4). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Rodrigues.

Rodrigues is rated at 1515 — 238 points above Kopylov's 1277. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodrigues throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodrigues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Rodrigues has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gregory Rodrigues over Roman Kopylov.** We're leaning Rodrigues here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Erin Blanchfield (7-1) taking on Tracy Cortez (6-1).

Blanchfield is rated at 1631 — 313 points above Cortez's 1318. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blanchfield throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cortez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Blanchfield has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Tracy Cortez.** The model gives Blanchfield a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Ethyn Ewing (0-0) taking on Malcolm Wellmaker (2-0). Wellmaker is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ewing at 1121 versus Wellmaker at 1034. That 86-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wellmaker throws significantly more leather — a 6.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Wellmaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ewing has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Malcolm Wellmaker over Ethyn Ewing.** We're leaning Wellmaker here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Kyle Daukaus (3-4) taking on Gerald Meerschaert (12-12).

Daukaus is rated at 1170 — 303 points above Meerschaert's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Daukaus is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Daukaus throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Daukaus is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyle Daukaus over Gerald Meerschaert.** The model gives Daukaus a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Pat Sabatini (7-2) taking on Chepe Mariscal (5-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sabatini at 1425 versus Mariscal at 1275. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Mariscal has won 5 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mariscal throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Mariscal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Chepe Mariscal over Pat Sabatini.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mariscal at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Fatima Kline (2-1) taking on Angela Hill (13-15). Kline is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Kline is rated at 1257 — 183 points above Hill's 1074. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hill throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Hill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Kline has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Fatima Kline over Angela Hill.** The model gives Kline a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Baisangur Susurkaev (1-0) taking on Eric McConico (1-1). Susurkaev is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Susurkaev is rated at 1207 — 279 points above McConico's 928. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Susurkaev throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Susurkaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Susurkaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Baisangur Susurkaev over Eric McConico.** We're leaning Susurkaev here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Matheus Camilo (0-1) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1).

Camilo is rated at 968 — 156 points above Borshchev's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Borshchev throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Camilo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Matheus Camilo over Viacheslav Borshchev.** The model gives Camilo a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.