UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Saturday, March 16, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA·13 fights
Model: 6/12(50%)
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Main Card
HeavyweightHIT
Marcin Tybura won by Submission (R1)
Tybura 53%47% Tuivasa
Over/UnderUnder 58%
Under 58%Over 42%
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -57(favors Tuivasa)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Tybura)
Welterweight
Battle 64%36% Loosa
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
LEAN
→Elo gap: +543(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Loosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Loosa)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Ovince Saint Preux won by Decision - Split (R3)
Preux 21%79% Nzechukwu
Over/UnderUnder 59%
Under 59%Over 41%
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -214(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Nzechukwu)
FeatherweightMISS
Christian Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 45%55% Dulgarian
Over/UnderOver 54%
Under 46%Over 54%
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +209(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Dulgarian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Dulgarian)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Macy Chiasson won by Submission (R1)
Chiasson 72%28% Kianzad
Over/UnderOver 62%
Under 38%Over 62%
CONFIDENTMarket: 68% (+4.0% edge)
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -1(favors Kianzad)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Chiasson)
MiddleweightHIT
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R2)
Meerschaert 65%35% Barberena
Over/UnderUnder 50%
Under 50%Over 50%
CONFIDENTMarket: 69% (-3.4% edge)
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 58% historically
→Elo gap: -48(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Meerschaert)
Prelims
LightweightHIT
Mike Davis won by Submission (R2)
Davis 79%21% Levy
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
STRONGMarket: 80% (-0.5% edge)
→Elo gap: +188(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Levy)
Women's BantamweightMISS
Chelsea Chandler won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chandler 39%61% Nunes
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
LEANMarket: 41% (-2.3% edge)
→Elo gap: -279(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Chandler)
FlyweightMISS
Jafel Filho won by Submission (R1)
Filho 48%52% Osbourne
Over/UnderOver 55%
Under 45%Over 55%
TOSS-UPMarket: 61% (-12.9% edge)
→Elo gap: +186(favors Filho)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Osbourne)
FeatherweightMISS
Danny Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 35%65% Culibao
Over/UnderOver 59%
Under 41%Over 59%
CONFIDENTMarket: 36% (-1.1% edge)
→Elo gap: -243(favors Culibao)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Culibao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Culibao)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Jaqueline Amorim won by Submission (R1)
Amorim 57%43% McKenna
Over/UnderOver 61%
Under 39%Over 61%
LEANMarket: 41% (+16.0% edge)
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 45% historically
→Elo gap: -35(favors McKenna)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Amorim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors McKenna)
LightweightHIT
Thiago Moises won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moises 74%26% Ramirez
Over/UnderOver 56%
Under 44%Over 56%
CONFIDENTMarket: 74% (+0.6% edge)
→Elo gap: +258(favors Moises)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Moises)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Moises)
BantamweightMISS
Chad Anheliger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anheliger 30%70% Grigoriou
Over/UnderOver 51%
Under 49%Over 51%
CONFIDENTMarket: 39% (-8.8% edge)
→Elo gap: -204(favors Grigoriou)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Anheliger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Anheliger)