UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Saturday, March 16, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Heavyweight✓
Marcin Tybura won by Submission (R1)
Tybura 55%45% Tuivasa
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Tybura)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.1(favors Tuivasa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Tybura)
Welterweight
Battle 68%32% Loosa
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +535(favors Battle)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Loosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.9(favors Loosa)
Light Heavyweight✗
Ovince Saint Preux won by Decision - Split (R3)
Preux 16%84% Nzechukwu
STRONG
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -269(favors Nzechukwu)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Nzechukwu)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Nzechukwu)
Featherweight✗
Christian Rodriguez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Rodriguez 44%56% Dulgarian
LEAN
→Elo gap: +135(favors Rodriguez)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.3(favors Dulgarian)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.3(favors Dulgarian)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Macy Chiasson won by Submission (R1)
Chiasson 57%43% Kianzad
LEAN
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +11(favors Chiasson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.3(favors Kianzad)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors Chiasson)
Middleweight✓
Gerald Meerschaert won by Submission (R2)
Meerschaert 58%42% Barberena
LEAN
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -16(favors Barberena)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.7(favors Barberena)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Meerschaert)
Lightweight✗
Mike Davis won by Submission (R2)
Davis 47%53% Levy
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +155(favors Davis)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Davis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Levy)
Women's Bantamweight✗
Chelsea Chandler won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Chandler 40%60% Nunes
LEAN
→Elo gap: -186(favors Nunes)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.1(favors Nunes)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Chandler)
Flyweight✓
Jafel Filho won by Submission (R1)
Filho 55%45% Osbourne
LEAN
→Elo gap: +152(favors Filho)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Osbourne)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Osbourne)
Featherweight✗
Danny Silva won by Decision - Split (R3)
Silva 38%62% Culibao
LEAN
→Elo gap: -169(favors Culibao)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Culibao)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Culibao)
Women's Strawweight✓
Jaqueline Amorim won by Submission (R1)
Amorim 59%41% McKenna
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -72(favors McKenna)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Amorim)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors McKenna)
Lightweight✓
Thiago Moises won by KO/TKO (R3)
Moises 58%42% Ramirez
LEAN
→Elo gap: +153(favors Moises)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Moises)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Moises)
Bantamweight✗
Chad Anheliger won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Anheliger 40%60% Grigoriou
LEAN
→Elo gap: -121(favors Grigoriou)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.0(favors Anheliger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Anheliger)