UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcin Tybura (14-8) taking on Tai Tuivasa (8-8). Tybura will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Tybura at 1242 versus Tuivasa at 1107. That 135-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tuivasa throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Tybura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Tybura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marcin Tybura over Tai Tuivasa.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tybura at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on Ange Loosa (2-2). Battle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Battle is rated at 1469 — 535 points above Loosa's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loosa throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Loosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Loosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Battle over Ange Loosa.** We're leaning Battle here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ovince Saint Preux (15-12) taking on Kennedy Nzechukwu (8-6). Nzechukwu is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Nzechukwu is rated at 1071 — 155 points above Preux's 917. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nzechukwu throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nzechukwu is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Nzechukwu has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kennedy Nzechukwu over Ovince Saint Preux.** The model is firm on this one: Nzechukwu at 84%.

The Featherweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-3) taking on Isaac Dulgarian (2-1).

Rodriguez carries a modest Elo edge (1041 to 999), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dulgarian throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dulgarian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Dulgarian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Isaac Dulgarian over Christian Rodriguez.** The model gives Dulgarian a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Macy Chiasson (8-4) taking on Pannie Kianzad (5-5). Chiasson is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Chiasson is rated at 1145 — 202 points above Kianzad's 943. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Chiasson's wrestler game against Kianzad's striker approach. Chiasson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Kianzad brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kianzad throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Chiasson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Kianzad has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Macy Chiasson over Pannie Kianzad.** The model gives Chiasson a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Gerald Meerschaert (12-12) taking on Bryan Barberena (9-9). Meerschaert will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Barberena at 960 versus Meerschaert at 867. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Meerschaert looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Barberena is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Meerschaert the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barberena throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Meerschaert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Meerschaert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gerald Meerschaert over Bryan Barberena.** The model gives Meerschaert a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Davis (4-2) taking on Natan Levy (2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Davis.

Davis is rated at 1249 — 275 points above Levy's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Levy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Levy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Natan Levy over Mike Davis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Levy at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Chelsea Chandler (2-2) taking on Josiane Nunes (3-2). There's a 6-inch height gap favoring Chandler.

Chandler carries a modest Elo edge (913 to 866), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nunes throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Chandler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Nunes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josiane Nunes over Chelsea Chandler.** The model gives Nunes a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Jafel Filho (2-2) taking on Ode Osbourne (5-7). Osbourne will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Filho is rated at 1193 — 347 points above Osbourne's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Osbourne throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Osbourne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Osbourne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jafel Filho over Ode Osbourne.** The model gives Filho a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Danny Silva (2-0) taking on Josh Culibao (3-3-1). Culibao will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1051 to 972), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Culibao throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Culibao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Josh Culibao over Danny Silva.** The model gives Culibao a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jaqueline Amorim (4-1) taking on Cory McKenna (3-2). Amorim will look to use a 10-inch reach edge to control distance.

Amorim is rated at 1177 — 248 points above McKenna's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Amorim rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Amorim is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while McKenna looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving McKenna the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amorim throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenna is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Amorim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jaqueline Amorim over Cory McKenna.** The model gives Amorim a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Thiago Moises (8-6) taking on Mitch Ramirez (0-1).

Moises is rated at 1124 — 241 points above Ramirez's 883. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Moises throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Moises is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Ramirez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Thiago Moises over Mitch Ramirez.** The model gives Moises a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chad Anheliger (2-2) taking on Charalampos Grigoriou (0-1). Grigoriou will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anheliger is rated at 892 — 155 points above Grigoriou's 737. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anheliger throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Anheliger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Grigoriou has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Charalampos Grigoriou over Chad Anheliger.** The model gives Grigoriou a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.