UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Bantamweight championship matchup features Sean O'Malley (10-3) taking on Marlon Vera (15-9). O'Malley is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

O'Malley is rated at 1748 — 288 points above Vera's 1460. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is O'Malley's striker game against Vera's all-rounder approach. O'Malley brings a versatile approach, while Vera is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Malley throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. O'Malley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sean O'Malley over Marlon Vera.** We're leaning O'Malley here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Dustin Poirier (22-8) taking on Benoit Saint Denis (8-3).

Denis carries a modest Elo edge (1743 to 1681), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Denis has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Poirier is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Poirier the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Denis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Dustin Poirier over Benoit Saint Denis.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Poirier at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Page (2-1) taking on Kevin Holland (15-11).

Page is rated at 1419 — 163 points above Holland's 1257. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holland throws significantly more leather — a 6.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Holland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Page has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kevin Holland over Michael Page.** We're leaning Holland here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Jack Della Maddalena (8-0) taking on Gilbert Burns (15-8).

Maddalena is rated at 1877 — 498 points above Burns's 1379. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maddalena rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Maddalena's knockout artist game against Burns's all-rounder approach. Maddalena is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Burns is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maddalena throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Maddalena has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jack Della Maddalena over Gilbert Burns.** We're leaning Maddalena here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Petr Yan (11-4) taking on Song Yadong (11-3-1).

Yan is rated at 1869 — 322 points above Yadong's 1548. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Yan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Yan's all-rounder game against Yadong's knockout artist approach. Yan is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yadong is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yan throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Yan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Yadong has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Song Yadong over Petr Yan.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yadong at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Curtis Blaydes (13-5) taking on Jailton Almeida (8-2).

Blaydes is rated at 1634 — 207 points above Almeida's 1428. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Blaydes's striker game against Almeida's wrestler approach. Blaydes brings a versatile approach, while Almeida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blaydes throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Blaydes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jailton Almeida over Curtis Blaydes.** The model gives Almeida a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Maycee Barber (9-2) taking on Katlyn Cerminara (11-5). Cerminara is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Barber is rated at 1543 — 261 points above Cerminara's 1283. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barber rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cerminara throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Barber is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Cerminara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maycee Barber over Katlyn Cerminara.** The model is firm on this one: Barber at 76%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Rafael Dos Anjos (21-14).

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 289 points above Anjos's 1282. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anjos throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Rafael Dos Anjos.** The model is firm on this one: Gamrot at 78%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Kyler Phillips (6-2) taking on Pedro Munhoz (10-9). Phillips is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Phillips at 1238, Munhoz at 1211. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Phillips looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Munhoz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Phillips the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Munhoz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Phillips is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Phillips has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kyler Phillips over Pedro Munhoz.** We're leaning Phillips here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Philipe Lins (3-2) taking on Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1). Lins will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lins at 1256 versus Cutelaba at 1147. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Lins rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.9 more per 15 minutes. Cutelaba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Philipe Lins.** We're leaning Cutelaba here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk (9-7).

Oleksiejczuk is rated at 1268 — 155 points above Pereira's 1113. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's all-rounder game against Oleksiejczuk's striker approach. Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Oleksiejczuk brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pereira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Oleksiejczuk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Michel Pereira over Michal Oleksiejczuk.** The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Robelis Despaigne (1-1) taking on Josh Parisian (2-4). Despaigne is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Despaigne at 884 versus Parisian at 772. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisian throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Despaigne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Robelis Despaigne over Josh Parisian.** The model gives Despaigne a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Asu Almabayev (5-1) taking on CJ Vergara (3-4). Vergara is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Almabayev is rated at 1349 — 583 points above Vergara's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Almabayev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vergara is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Almabayev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vergara throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almabayev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Almabayev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Asu Almabayev over CJ Vergara.** The model gives Almabayev a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Joanne Wood (8-8) taking on Maryna Moroz (6-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Wood at 1101 versus Moroz at 952. That 150-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Moroz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Moroz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Maryna Moroz over Joanne Wood.** The model gives Moroz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.