UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Jairzinho Rozenstruik (9-5) taking on Shamil Gaziev (3-1).

Rozenstruik is rated at 1385 — 176 points above Gaziev's 1209. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gaziev throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gaziev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Shamil Gaziev over Jairzinho Rozenstruik.** The model gives Gaziev a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Petrino (5-2) taking on Tyson Pedro (6-4).

Petrino is rated at 1195 — 180 points above Pedro's 1015. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Petrino's wrestler game against Pedro's knockout artist approach. Petrino looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Pedro is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pedro throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Petrino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Pedro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Vitor Petrino over Tyson Pedro.** The model gives Petrino a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Alex Perez (7-6). Mokaev will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mokaev is rated at 1480 — 187 points above Perez's 1293. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Mokaev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Perez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Mokaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Alex Perez.** We're leaning Mokaev here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Umar Nurmagomedov (7-1) taking on Bekzat Almakhan (1-1).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1701 — 688 points above Almakhan's 1013. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nurmagomedov throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Almakhan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Umar Nurmagomedov over Bekzat Almakhan.** We're leaning Nurmagomedov here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Steve Erceg (3-3) taking on Matt Schnell (7-7).

Erceg is rated at 1179 — 280 points above Schnell's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Erceg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Schnell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Steve Erceg over Matt Schnell.** We're leaning Erceg here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Eryk Anders (9-8) taking on Jamie Pickett (2-6). Pickett will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Anders is rated at 1106 — 433 points above Pickett's 673. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anders throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anders is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pickett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Eryk Anders over Jamie Pickett.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Anders at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Vinicius Oliveira (4-0) taking on Benardo Sopaj (0-1). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1333 — 362 points above Sopaj's 971. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Oliveira rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sopaj throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sopaj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sopaj has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Benardo Sopaj over Vinicius Oliveira.** The model gives Sopaj a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Aiemann Zahabi (7-2) taking on Javid Basharat (3-2).

Zahabi is rated at 1586 — 485 points above Basharat's 1101. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zahabi rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Basharat throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Zahabi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Javid Basharat over Aiemann Zahabi.** We're leaning Basharat here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2) taking on Claudio Ribeiro (1-2).

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 549 points above Ribeiro's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Claudio Ribeiro.** The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on AJ Cunningham (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Cunningham.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 477 points above Cunningham's 887. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cunningham has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ludovit Klein over AJ Cunningham.** We're leaning Klein here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Loik Radzhabov (2-1) taking on Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Radzhabov.

Radzhabov is rated at 1009 — 152 points above Al-Selwady's 857. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Radzhabov throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Radzhabov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.3 more per 15 minutes. Al-Selwady has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady over Loik Radzhabov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Al-Selwady at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.