UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight championship matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Roman Dolidze (9-3).

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 330 points above Dolidze's 1546. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one, while Dolidze has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dolidze is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Roman Dolidze.** We're leaning Imavov here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Drew Dober (13-11). Moicano is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Moicano is rated at 1542 — 459 points above Dober's 1083. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Moicano's wrestler game against Dober's knockout artist approach. Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Dober is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dober throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moicano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Dober has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Renato Moicano over Drew Dober.** We're leaning Moicano here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Randy Brown (14-6) taking on Muslim Salikhov (9-4). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Brown is rated at 1381 — 198 points above Salikhov's 1183. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Brown's all-rounder game against Salikhov's striker approach. Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Salikhov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Salikhov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Randy Brown over Muslim Salikhov.** We're leaning Brown here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Natalia Silva (7-0) taking on Viviane Araujo (7-5). Araujo will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Silva is rated at 1618 — 411 points above Araujo's 1207. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Silva rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Silva's striker game against Araujo's all-rounder approach. Silva brings a versatile approach, while Araujo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Araujo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Natalia Silva over Viviane Araujo.** We're leaning Silva here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Aliaskhab Khizriev (1-0) taking on Makhmud Muradov (4-2). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Muradov.

Muradov carries a modest Elo edge (1179 to 1111), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Khizriev throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Khizriev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Khizriev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Makhmud Muradov over Aliaskhab Khizriev.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Muradov at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Charles Radtke (3-2) taking on Gilbert Urbina (1-2). Urbina is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Radtke is rated at 1082 — 252 points above Urbina's 830. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Urbina throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Urbina is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Radtke has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Gilbert Urbina over Charles Radtke.** The model gives Urbina a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Molly McCann (7-6) taking on Diana Belbita (2-5). Belbita is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: McCann at 834 versus Belbita at 739. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCann throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. McCann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. McCann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Diana Belbita over Molly McCann.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Belbita at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Charles Johnson (7-5) taking on Azat Maksum (1-2).

Johnson is rated at 1097 — 262 points above Maksum's 835. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Maksum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Maksum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Azat Maksum over Charles Johnson.** We're leaning Maksum here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Themba Gorimbo (4-2) taking on Pete Rodriguez (1-1). Gorimbo is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Gorimbo is rated at 1085 — 222 points above Rodriguez's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 8.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Gorimbo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Themba Gorimbo over Pete Rodriguez.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gorimbo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features JeongYeong Lee (2-1) taking on Blake Bilder (1-1). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Lee carries a modest Elo edge (937 to 882), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bilder throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Bilder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: JeongYeong Lee over Blake Bilder.** We're leaning Lee here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-3) taking on Julija Stoliarenko (2-6). Carolina will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Carolina is rated at 1036 — 194 points above Stoliarenko's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Carolina's striker game against Stoliarenko's wrestler approach. Carolina brings a versatile approach, while Stoliarenko looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Stoliarenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Luana Carolina over Julija Stoliarenko.** The model gives Carolina a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features MarQuel Mederos (2-0) taking on Landon Quinones (0-1).

Mederos is rated at 1172 — 286 points above Quinones's 886. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinones throws significantly more leather — a 9.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinones is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mederos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Landon Quinones over MarQuel Mederos.** We're leaning Quinones here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jamal Pogues (2-1) taking on Thomas Petersen (2-2). Pogues is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Pogues carries a modest Elo edge (983 to 929), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pogues throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pogues is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Petersen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jamal Pogues over Thomas Petersen.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pogues at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.