UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown
Saturday, November 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 11/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Gabriel Bonfim won by KO/TKO (R2)
Bonfim 52%48% Brown
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -63(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Brown)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Bonfim)
Flyweight✓
Joseph Morales won by Submission (R1)
Morales 55%45% Schnell
LEAN
→Elo gap: +77(favors Morales)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Schnell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Morales)
Welterweight✓
Uros Medic won by KO/TKO (R1)
Medic 51%49% Salikhov
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -274(favors Salikhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Medic)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Salikhov)
Lightweight✓
Chris Padilla won by KO/TKO (R2)
Padilla 54%46% Bonfim
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +176(favors Padilla)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Bonfim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Padilla)
Middleweight✓
Christian Leroy Duncan won by KO/TKO (R2)
Duncan 56%44% Tulio
LEAN
→Elo gap: +123(favors Duncan)
→Striking volume advantage: -8.7(favors Tulio)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Duncan)
Featherweight✗
Jamall Emmers won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Emmers 49%51% Amil
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -7(favors Amil)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Amil)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Amil)
Bantamweight✓
Raoni Barcelos won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barcelos 51%49% Simon
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Barcelos)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Barcelos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Barcelos)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Jacqueline Cavalcanti won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cavalcanti 69%31% Silva
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +190(favors Cavalcanti)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Cavalcanti)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Silva)
Heavyweight✓
Josh Hokit won by KO/TKO (R1)
Hokit 53%47% Gimenis
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Gimenis)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Gimenis)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Gimenis)
Women's Strawweight✓
Denise Gomes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Gomes 54%46% Pennington
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -10(favors Pennington)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.4(favors Pennington)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Gomes)
Bantamweight✓
Daniel Marcos won by Submission (R2)
Marcos 62%38% Johns
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +203(favors Marcos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Marcos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Johns)
Catch Weight✓
Zach Reese won by Submission (R2)
Reese 57%43% McVey
LEAN
→Elo gap: +30(favors Reese)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Reese)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.1(favors Reese)