UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Gabriel Bonfim (5-1) taking on Randy Brown (14-6). Brown is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Bonfim is rated at 1618 — 238 points above Brown's 1381. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonfim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Bonfim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonfim the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonfim is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gabriel Bonfim over Randy Brown. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bonfim at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joseph Morales (2-2) taking on Matt Schnell (7-7).

Morales is rated at 1149 — 250 points above Schnell's 899. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schnell throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Morales has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joseph Morales over Matt Schnell. The model gives Morales a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Muslim Salikhov (9-4).

Medic is rated at 1484 — 301 points above Salikhov's 1183. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Salikhov has won 3 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Salikhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Muslim Salikhov. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Medic at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Padilla (3-0) taking on Ismael Bonfim (2-2). Padilla will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Padilla is rated at 1301 — 312 points above Bonfim's 989. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Padilla rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonfim throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Padilla is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Bonfim has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Padilla over Ismael Bonfim. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Padilla at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2) taking on Marco Tulio (2-0). Duncan is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 291 points above Tulio's 1133. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tulio throws significantly more leather — a 8.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Tulio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Marco Tulio. The model gives Duncan a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jamall Emmers (4-4) taking on Hyder Amil (3-1). Emmers will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Emmers is rated at 1177 — 166 points above Amil's 1011. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amil throws significantly more leather — a 4.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Amil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Emmers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Hyder Amil over Jamall Emmers. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Amil at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Raoni Barcelos (9-4) taking on Ricky Simon (10-5).

Barcelos is rated at 1410 — 187 points above Simon's 1223. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Barcelos rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Barcelos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Simon is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Barcelos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barcelos throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Barcelos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Simon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Raoni Barcelos over Ricky Simon. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barcelos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jacqueline Cavalcanti (4-0) taking on Mayra Bueno Silva (5-5-1). Cavalcanti is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Cavalcanti is rated at 1291 — 275 points above Silva's 1016. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cavalcanti rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcanti throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Mayra Bueno Silva. We're leaning Cavalcanti here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Hokit (1-0) taking on Max Gimenis (0-0).

Hokit is rated at 1240 — 367 points above Gimenis's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gimenis throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gimenis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gimenis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Hokit over Max Gimenis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hokit at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Denise Gomes (5-2) taking on Tecia Pennington (11-7). Gomes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Gomes is rated at 1370 — 165 points above Pennington's 1206. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gomes rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pennington throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gomes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Pennington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Denise Gomes over Tecia Pennington. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gomes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Daniel Marcos (4-1) taking on Miles Johns (6-4).

Marcos is rated at 1352 — 308 points above Johns's 1044. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Marcos throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Marcos over Miles Johns. The model gives Marcos a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features Zach Reese (4-2) taking on Jackson McVey (0-1).

Reese is rated at 993 — 159 points above McVey's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Reese throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Reese is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Reese has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Zach Reese over Jackson McVey. The model gives Reese a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.