UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Saturday, December 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 7/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Welterweight✓
Leon Edwards won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Edwards 74%26% Covington
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +207(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Covington)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.2(favors Covington)
Flyweight✓
Alexandre Pantoja won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Pantoja 59%41% Royval
LEAN
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +156(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Pantoja)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Pantoja)
Welterweight✓
Shavkat Rakhmonov won by Submission (R2)
Rakhmonov 80%20% Thompson
STRONG
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Rakhmonov)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Thompson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Rakhmonov)
Lightweight✓
Paddy Pimblett won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pimblett 74%26% Ferguson
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +225(favors Pimblett)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Pimblett)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Pimblett)
Featherweight✗
Josh Emmett won by KO/TKO (R1)
Emmett 32%68% Mitchell
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +39(favors Emmett)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Emmett)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Mitchell)
Light Heavyweight✗
Alonzo Menifield won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Menifield 45%55% Jacoby
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -100(favors Jacoby)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Jacoby)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Menifield)
Women's Bantamweight✓
Irene Aldana won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Aldana 50%50% Rosa
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +246(favors Aldana)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Rosa)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Rosa)
Bantamweight✓
Cody Garbrandt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Garbrandt 53%47% Kelleher
TOSS-UP
Striker vs All-Rounder — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +244(favors Garbrandt)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.6(favors Garbrandt)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.4(favors Kelleher)
Women's Flyweight✗
Ariane da Silva won by Submission (R2)
Silva 46%54% O'Neill
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -90(favors O'Neill)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.9(favors O'Neill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors O'Neill)
Flyweight✗
Tagir Ulanbekov won by Submission (R2)
Ulanbekov 42%58% Durden
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -62(favors Durden)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Ulanbekov)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors Durden)
Featherweight✓
Andre Fili won by KO/TKO (R1)
Fili 51%49% Almeida
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +4(favors Fili)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Fili)
Heavyweight✗
Shamil Gaziev won by KO/TKO (R2)
Gaziev 38%62% Buday
LEAN
→Elo gap: -202(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.7(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Buday)