UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Leon Edwards (14-5) taking on Colby Covington (12-5). Edwards is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Edwards at 1747, Covington at 1724. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Edwards is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Covington looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Covington the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Covington throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Covington is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Covington has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Leon Edwards over Colby Covington. We're leaning Edwards here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight championship matchup features Alexandre Pantoja (14-4) taking on Brandon Royval (7-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Royval.

Pantoja is rated at 1543 — 161 points above Royval's 1382. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pantoja rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pantoja looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Royval is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Pantoja the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pantoja throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pantoja is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Royval has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brandon Royval over Alexandre Pantoja. The model gives Royval a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Shavkat Rakhmonov (7-0) taking on Stephen Thompson (12-9-1).

Rakhmonov is rated at 1978 — 519 points above Thompson's 1459. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Rakhmonov rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Rakhmonov's wrestler game against Thompson's striker approach. Rakhmonov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Thompson brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Rakhmonov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Rakhmonov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson. We're leaning Rakhmonov here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Paddy Pimblett (7-1) taking on Tony Ferguson (15-9). Ferguson will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Pimblett is rated at 1692 — 437 points above Ferguson's 1255. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Pimblett rides a 7-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Pimblett looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ferguson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pimblett the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pimblett throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Pimblett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Ferguson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Paddy Pimblett over Tony Ferguson. The model gives Pimblett a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Josh Emmett (10-7) taking on Bryce Mitchell (9-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Mitchell.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Emmett at 1437, Mitchell at 1454. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Emmett's striker game against Mitchell's wrestler approach. Emmett brings a versatile approach, while Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmett throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Josh Emmett. We're leaning Mitchell here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alonzo Menifield (10-6-1) taking on Dustin Jacoby (10-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Jacoby.

There's a real Elo separation here: Jacoby at 1411 versus Menifield at 1314. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Menifield is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jacoby brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 56% win rate against strikers, giving Menifield the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jacoby throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Menifield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Jacoby has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dustin Jacoby over Alonzo Menifield. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jacoby at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Irene Aldana (8-6) taking on Karol Rosa (8-4). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Aldana.

Aldana is rated at 1411 — 181 points above Rosa's 1230. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Aldana's all-rounder game against Rosa's striker approach. Aldana is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rosa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rosa throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rosa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldana has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Irene Aldana over Karol Rosa. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aldana at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Garbrandt (10-7) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-9).

Garbrandt is rated at 1313 — 418 points above Kelleher's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garbrandt's striker game against Kelleher's all-rounder approach. Garbrandt brings a versatile approach, while Kelleher is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garbrandt throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Garbrandt over Brian Kelleher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Garbrandt at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ariane da Silva (6-8) taking on Casey O'Neill (6-2).

O'Neill is rated at 1349 — 259 points above Silva's 1091. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. O'Neill throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Neill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. O'Neill has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Casey O'Neill over Ariane da Silva. The model gives O'Neill a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Tagir Ulanbekov (6-2) taking on Cody Durden (6-8-1). Ulanbekov will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ulanbekov is rated at 1316 — 401 points above Durden's 915. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ulanbekov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ulanbekov throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Durden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Durden over Tagir Ulanbekov. We're leaning Durden here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Andre Fili (13-12) taking on Lucas Almeida (2-4). Fili will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Fili is rated at 1176 — 359 points above Almeida's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Fili's all-rounder game against Almeida's striker approach. Fili is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Almeida brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Almeida throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Fili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Fili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Almeida over Andre Fili. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Almeida at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Shamil Gaziev (3-2) taking on Martin Buday (7-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Gaziev at 1339 versus Buday at 1234. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buday throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Buday is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Gaziev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Buday over Shamil Gaziev. The model gives Buday a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.