UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Saturday, November 11, 2023·New York City, New York, USA
Model Record: 6/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light Heavyweight✓
Alex Pereira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pereira 55%45% Prochazka
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +48(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.4(favors Prochazka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Prochazka)
Heavyweight✗
Tom Aspinall won by KO/TKO (R1)
Aspinall 48%52% Pavlovich
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs Knockout Artist — Submission Artist wins 46% historically
→Elo gap: -199(favors Pavlovich)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.2(favors Pavlovich)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Aspinall)
Women's Strawweight✗
Jessica Andrade won by KO/TKO (R2)
Andrade 50%50% Dern
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -111(favors Dern)
→Striking volume advantage: +6.1(favors Andrade)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Dern)
Lightweight✓
Benoit Saint Denis won by KO/TKO (R1)
Denis 62%38% Frevola
LEAN
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: -86(favors Frevola)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Denis)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.7(favors Denis)
Featherweight✗
Diego Lopes won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lopes 36%64% Sabatini
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -92(favors Sabatini)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Lopes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.9(favors Sabatini)
Flyweight✗
Steve Erceg won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Erceg 42%58% Costa
LEAN
→Elo gap: +26(favors Erceg)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.9(favors Costa)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Erceg)
Women's Strawweight✗
Loopy Godinez won by Decision - Split (R3)
Godinez 48%52% Ricci
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -70(favors Ricci)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.4(favors Godinez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Ricci)
Lightweight✓
Mateusz Rebecki won by Submission (R1)
Rebecki 69%31% Roberts
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +278(favors Rebecki)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.3(favors Rebecki)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Rebecki)
Lightweight
Sadykhov 54%46% Borshchev
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +81(favors Sadykhov)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.1(favors Sadykhov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.9(favors Sadykhov)
Lightweight✓
Jared Gordon won by KO/TKO (R1)
Gordon 56%44% Madsen
LEAN
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -85(favors Madsen)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Gordon)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Madsen)
Catch Weight✗
John Castaneda won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Castaneda 46%54% Kang
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -178(favors Kang)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Castaneda)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.1(favors Kang)
Flyweight✓
Joshua Van won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Van 64%36% Borjas
LEAN
→Elo gap: +32(favors Van)
→Striking volume advantage: +8.0(favors Van)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Borjas)
Featherweight✓
Jamall Emmers won by KO/TKO (R1)
Emmers 63%37% Buzukja
LEAN
→Elo gap: +61(favors Emmers)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.8(favors Emmers)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Emmers)