UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alex Pereira (9-2) taking on Jiri Prochazka (5-2).

Pereira is rated at 2004 — 198 points above Prochazka's 1806. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Pereira's knockout artist game against Prochazka's all-rounder approach. Pereira is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Prochazka is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Prochazka throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Prochazka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Pereira over Jiri Prochazka. The model gives Pereira a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tom Aspinall (8-1) taking on Sergei Pavlovich (7-3). Pavlovich will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aspinall is rated at 1917 — 254 points above Pavlovich's 1663. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Aspinall rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Aspinall is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pavlovich is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Pavlovich the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pavlovich throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Aspinall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Pavlovich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sergei Pavlovich over Tom Aspinall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pavlovich at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Jessica Andrade (17-12) taking on Mackenzie Dern (10-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Dern.

Dern is rated at 1472 — 356 points above Andrade's 1115. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Andrade is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dern the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Andrade throws significantly more leather — a 6.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Dern is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Andrade has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mackenzie Dern over Jessica Andrade. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dern at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Benoit Saint Denis (8-3) taking on Matt Frevola (5-5-1). Denis is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Denis is rated at 1743 — 650 points above Frevola's 1093. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Denis's submission artist game against Frevola's striker approach. Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Frevola brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Frevola has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Benoit Saint Denis over Matt Frevola. The model gives Denis a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Diego Lopes (6-2) taking on Pat Sabatini (7-2). Lopes is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lopes is rated at 1614 — 190 points above Sabatini's 1425. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lopes is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sabatini looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sabatini the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lopes throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sabatini is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Sabatini has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Sabatini over Diego Lopes. The model gives Sabatini a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Steve Erceg (3-3) taking on Alessandro Costa (2-2). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Erceg.

Erceg is rated at 1179 — 246 points above Costa's 934. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Erceg is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Costa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alessandro Costa over Steve Erceg. The model gives Costa a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Loopy Godinez (8-5) taking on Tabatha Ricci (6-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ricci at 1355 versus Godinez at 1260. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ricci is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tabatha Ricci over Loopy Godinez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ricci at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Rebecki (4-2) taking on Roosevelt Roberts (4-4). Roberts is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Rebecki is rated at 1098 — 213 points above Roberts's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rebecki is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Roberts the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rebecki throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Rebecki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Rebecki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mateusz Rebecki over Roosevelt Roberts. We're leaning Rebecki here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Nazim Sadykhov (4-0-1) taking on Viacheslav Borshchev (3-5-1).

Sadykhov is rated at 1278 — 466 points above Borshchev's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadykhov throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadykhov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Borshchev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nazim Sadykhov over Viacheslav Borshchev. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sadykhov at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jared Gordon (9-6) taking on Mark Madsen (4-1). Madsen will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gordon at 1209 versus Madsen at 1112. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gordon throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Madsen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Gordon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jared Gordon over Mark Madsen. The model gives Gordon a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Catch Weight matchup features John Castaneda (4-3) taking on Kyung Ho Kang (8-4). Kang is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Castaneda at 1117 versus Kang at 1029. That 88-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Castaneda throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Kang is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Kang has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kyung Ho Kang over John Castaneda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kang at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Joshua Van (8-1) taking on Kevin Borjas (1-2). Borjas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Van is rated at 1678 — 799 points above Borjas's 879. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Van rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Van throws significantly more leather — a 8.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Borjas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Borjas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Van over Kevin Borjas. The model gives Van a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jamall Emmers (4-4) taking on Dennis Buzukja (1-2). Emmers will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Emmers is rated at 1177 — 259 points above Buzukja's 918. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Emmers throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Emmers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jamall Emmers over Dennis Buzukja. The model gives Emmers a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.