UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Islam Makhachev (16-1) taking on Alexander Volkanovski (14-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Makhachev.

Makhachev is rated at 2210 — 386 points above Volkanovski's 1824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Makhachev rides a 15-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Makhachev's wrestler game against Volkanovski's striker approach. Makhachev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Volkanovski brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Makhachev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Volkanovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski.** We're leaning Makhachev here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (8-0) taking on Kamaru Usman (15-3).

Chimaev is rated at 1987 — 159 points above Usman's 1828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Chimaev is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Usman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Chimaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Chimaev throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Kamaru Usman over Khamzat Chimaev.** The model gives Usman a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Magomed Ankalaev (12-1-1) taking on Johnny Walker (7-6). Walker is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Ankalaev is rated at 1772 — 341 points above Walker's 1432. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ankalaev rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Ankalaev brings a versatile approach, while Walker is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Walker the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ankalaev throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ankalaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Walker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Magomed Ankalaev over Johnny Walker.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ankalaev at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Ikram Aliskerov (3-1) taking on Warlley Alves (8-7). Aliskerov will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Aliskerov is rated at 1439 — 544 points above Alves's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aliskerov throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ikram Aliskerov over Warlley Alves.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aliskerov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Said Nurmagomedov (7-3) taking on Muin Gafurov (2-2).

Nurmagomedov is rated at 1181 — 155 points above Gafurov's 1026. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gafurov throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Nurmagomedov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Gafurov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Said Nurmagomedov over Muin Gafurov.** The model gives Nurmagomedov a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Muhammad Mokaev (6-0) taking on Tim Elliott (9-11). Mokaev will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mokaev is rated at 1480 — 239 points above Elliott's 1241. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mokaev rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Elliott throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mokaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Mokaev has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Muhammad Mokaev over Tim Elliott.** The model is firm on this one: Mokaev at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Trevor Peek (2-2) taking on Mohammad Yahya (0-2). Yahya will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Peek is rated at 916 — 225 points above Yahya's 692. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Peek throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yahya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Trevor Peek over Mohammad Yahya.** The model gives Peek a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Javid Basharat (3-2) taking on Victor Henry (3-2).

Henry carries a modest Elo edge (1135 to 1101), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Basharat's striker game against Henry's all-rounder approach. Basharat brings a versatile approach, while Henry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Basharat is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Basharat has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Javid Basharat over Victor Henry.** We're leaning Basharat here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Sedriques Dumas (3-3) taking on Abu Azaitar (1-1). Dumas is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Dumas at 817, Azaitar at 804. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Azaitar throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Azaitar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Azaitar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Sedriques Dumas over Abu Azaitar.** The model is firm on this one: Dumas at 77%.

The Lightweight matchup features Mike Breeden (0-3) taking on Anshul Jubli (1-1).

Breeden is rated at 972 — 165 points above Jubli's 807. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Breeden throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jubli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Jubli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Anshul Jubli over Mike Breeden.** The model is firm on this one: Jubli at 80%.

The Featherweight matchup features Muhammad Naimov (5-1) taking on Nathaniel Wood (9-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Naimov.

Wood is rated at 1389 — 278 points above Naimov's 1112. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Naimov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Wood is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Naimov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wood throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Wood has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Nathaniel Wood over Muhammad Naimov.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wood at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Viktoriia Dudakova (2-1) taking on Jinh Yu Frey (2-5). Dudakova is the bigger frame at 5'5" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Dudakova at 848 versus Frey at 730. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dudakova throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dudakova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 25.2 more per 15 minutes. Dudakova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Viktoriia Dudakova over Jinh Yu Frey.** The model is firm on this one: Dudakova at 75%.

The Middleweight matchup features Shara Magomedov (4-1) taking on Bruno Silva (4-6).

Magomedov is rated at 1254 — 456 points above Silva's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Magomedov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bruno Silva over Shara Magomedov.** The model gives Silva a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.