UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-4) taking on Rafael Fiziev (7-5).

Gamrot is rated at 1694 — 206 points above Fiziev's 1488. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gamrot's wrestler game against Fiziev's striker approach. Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fiziev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Fiziev over Mateusz Gamrot. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Fiziev at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (9-3) taking on Dan Ige (11-10). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mitchell.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mitchell at 1454 versus Ige at 1343. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mitchell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Dan Ige. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitchell at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-6-2) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-9). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Rodriguez at 1148 versus Waterson-Gomez at 1010. That 137-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Michelle Waterson-Gomez. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (7-1) taking on AJ Fletcher (1-3). Battle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Battle is rated at 1520 — 543 points above Fletcher's 977. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Battle throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Fletcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Battle over AJ Fletcher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Battle at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (8-7-1) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-7). Ramos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jourdain is rated at 1344 — 436 points above Ramos's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jourdain is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 58% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Charles Jourdain. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ramos at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dan Argueta (1-3) taking on Miles Johns (6-5).

Johns is rated at 1121 — 323 points above Argueta's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johns throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Argueta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miles Johns over Dan Argueta. We're leaning Johns here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-14) taking on Andre Fialho (2-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Means at 1042 versus Fialho at 932. That 110-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Fialho's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fialho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Means over Andre Fialho. The model gives Means a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cody Brundage (5-8) taking on Jacob Malkoun (5-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Brundage.

Malkoun is rated at 1370 — 496 points above Brundage's 875. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Malkoun looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 55% win rate against submission artists, giving Malkoun the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Malkoun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Malkoun over Cody Brundage. We're leaning Malkoun here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mohammed Usman (4-2) taking on Jake Collier (5-9).

Usman is rated at 1113 — 231 points above Collier's 882. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Usman's striker game against Collier's all-rounder approach. Usman brings a versatile approach, while Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mohammed Usman over Jake Collier. The model gives Usman a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mizuki (3-1) taking on Hannah Goldy (1-4). Mizuki will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mizuki is rated at 1296 — 503 points above Goldy's 792. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizuki throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Goldy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Goldy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mizuki over Hannah Goldy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mizuki at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Montse Rendon (2-2) taking on Tamires Vidal (1-3).

Rendon is rated at 913 — 220 points above Vidal's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vidal throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rendon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamires Vidal over Montse Rendon. We're leaning Vidal here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.