UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Mateusz Gamrot (8-3) taking on Rafael Fiziev (7-4).

Gamrot is rated at 1571 — 259 points above Fiziev's 1312. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Gamrot's wrestler game against Fiziev's striker approach. Gamrot looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Fiziev brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiziev throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gamrot is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.4 more per 15 minutes. Gamrot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mateusz Gamrot over Rafael Fiziev.** The model gives Gamrot a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Bryce Mitchell (8-3) taking on Dan Ige (11-9). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Mitchell.

There's a real Elo separation here: Mitchell at 1355 versus Ige at 1235. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Mitchell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ige is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Mitchell the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ige throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Ige has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryce Mitchell over Dan Ige.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mitchell at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Marina Rodriguez (7-5-2) taking on Michelle Waterson-Gomez (6-8). Rodriguez is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Rodriguez is rated at 1059 — 151 points above Waterson-Gomez's 908. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterson-Gomez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Marina Rodriguez over Michelle Waterson-Gomez.** The model gives Rodriguez a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on AJ Fletcher (1-2). Battle is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 10-inch reach advantage.

Battle is rated at 1469 — 502 points above Fletcher's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Battle throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Fletcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Fletcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Bryan Battle over AJ Fletcher.** The model gives Battle a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Charles Jourdain (7-7-1) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6). Ramos will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jourdain is rated at 1354 — 525 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Jourdain is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jourdain throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Charles Jourdain.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ramos at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Dan Argueta (1-2) taking on Miles Johns (6-4).

Johns is rated at 1044 — 185 points above Argueta's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johns throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Argueta is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Miles Johns over Dan Argueta.** The model gives Johns a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Tim Means (15-13) taking on Andre Fialho (2-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Means at 872, Fialho at 865. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Means's all-rounder game against Fialho's striker approach. Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Fialho brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Means throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Means has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tim Means over Andre Fialho.** The model gives Means a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Cody Brundage (5-6) taking on Jacob Malkoun (4-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Brundage.

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 452 points above Brundage's 870. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brundage is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Malkoun looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Malkoun the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Malkoun has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jacob Malkoun over Cody Brundage.** We're leaning Malkoun here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mohammed Usman (3-2) taking on Jake Collier (5-8).

Usman is rated at 1087 — 293 points above Collier's 794. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Usman's striker game against Collier's all-rounder approach. Usman brings a versatile approach, while Collier is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Collier throws significantly more leather — a 6.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Usman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Jake Collier over Mohammed Usman.** This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Collier at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Mizuki (2-1) taking on Hannah Goldy (1-3). Mizuki will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mizuki is rated at 1185 — 372 points above Goldy's 812. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mizuki throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Goldy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Goldy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Mizuki over Hannah Goldy.** The model gives Mizuki a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Montse Rendon (1-1) taking on Tamires Vidal (1-2).

Rendon is rated at 1051 — 267 points above Vidal's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vidal throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Vidal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rendon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

**The Pick: Tamires Vidal over Montse Rendon.** We're leaning Vidal here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.